The government’s and parliamentary parties’ security policy analysis has been criticized for primarily highlighting the benefits of Swedish NATO membership. But in one episode, the disadvantage is highlighted that Russia would react negatively.

Most likely, different types of advocacy operations are considered to be aimed at both the general public and decision-makers in Sweden.

But according to the analysis, cyber attacks, other types of hybrid attacks, violations of Swedish airspace or territorial sea, other aggressive behavior in the immediate area, including strategic signaling with nuclear weapons, are also conceivable.

Military movements

Relocations of Russian military units or weapons systems in our immediate area are also seen as conceivable.

Even though Russia has weakened as a result of the war in Ukraine, the country is judged to have the capacity for limited acts of violence against Sweden as well. Russian special forces that can carry out sabotage or operations with long-range weapons (robots) are mentioned.

According to Foreign Minister Ann Linde (S), however, Sweden is not considered to be exposed to a conventional military attack in a NATO application. On the other hand, she emphasizes that such an attack cannot be ruled out, which has previously been stipulated in the Total Defense Bill.

According to the draft analysis, there is readiness to respond to Russian threats. Pressure would have to be dealt with through “a breadth of national measures”.

Hultqvist: “Must be realistic”

Pressure would have to be dealt with through “a breadth of national measures”.

According to Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist, Sweden has already made preparations. Security insurance from other allies is also important.

– One must of course be realistic that it can happen, therefore we must take our own measures to deal with such a situation. But we also need assurances from other countries about support in such a situation, says Hultqvist.

What measures can we take?

– It’s something about emergency preparedness measures within the Armed Forces, it’s about how to handle cyber threats. When it comes to other countries, it can be about the presence of military forces, both naval and with air and army troops. And it can be a reinforced exercise activity.

Exercises in progress

According to the analysis, exercises and Allied presence are expected to raise the threshold for Russian counter-reactions. Several exercises are already underway.

– In the regular exercise schedule are such exercises, we have, for example, in June a large exercise called Baltops which is about 5,000 soldiers, and a large number of ships. I think it’s about ten countries.

– But it will of course happen more as well, says Hultqvist, who does not want to give any more examples.

The analysis summarizes:

“There is thus a readiness to respond to Russian threats, but it is not possible to eliminate with certainty all risks of possible Russian countermeasures.”